2030 - How many humans can the future tolerate?

28.08.2019

Europe’s most sought-after futurologist has presented scientific forecasts for the future in more than 600 companies, to more than 200,000 top managers, and developed future strategies for different industries. In his book “2030 – How many humans can the future tolerate” he goes on an enthusiastic journey through time and into the year 2030. In this year’s edition of C€ Profile the futurologist Sven Gábor Jánszky takes us on a tour of the world of the future and explains how trends in technology and society will change our world over the next decade.

Some of the largest problems of humanity will be solved, but we will also face new threats.

• What will your job look like?
• Is full employment really as good as it sounds?
• What will we be eating in ten years’ time?
• Will we still suffer from illness?
• Where will we go on vacation?
• Why will mobility be free?

IN LABS TODAY WE ARE ALREADY WORKING ON THE FUTURE

Either way, your future does not come by chance. Today, it is already being developed in labs by researchers, tested behind closed doors by companies and forced into our world by investors. From Genbaby in China and artificial intelligence in Silicon Valley, through to blockchain developers in Tel Aviv. Right now the dominant technologies of 2030 are being developed. The impact of artificial intelligence, blockchain and genetics in particular cannot be valued highly enough, as well as their technological successors: quantum computers, nanotube electronics, digital assistants, augmented reality, cars that drive themselves, commercial drones, medical food and the 3D printing of houses, artificial organs and food.

RAPID CHANGES FROM 2030

However, patience is called for too – since some of the technologies being discussed in the media today may be fascinating but will still not be available on the mass market by the year 2030. That includes universal artificial intelligence i.e. those computers which will be more intelligent than humans; brain computer interfacesi.e. the interfaces which enable computers and human brains to be connected; real quantum computers which entangle millions of qubits and can process random programs; and space travel i.e. regular tourism in space together with establishing human settlement on Mars. All these technologies may show rapid progress by 2030, but they will not bring really relevant change to our lives until after 2030, as forecast today.

ONE DAY IN THE YEAR 2030

If you take a trip through one day in the year 2030 with us futurologists, first of all you will notice our new roommates. In the first chapter of our book, little daughter Marga is on the phone to her grandfather, who by the way is already dead, but a digital grandpa can imitate him quite convincingly. Later in the day we read about the happiness bot which measures the level of happiness and gives tips on how to increase it, just like the intelligent emotional assistant on the smartphones of married couples, which recognizes the partner’s emotional state and recommends appropriate actions.

DOES A BOT HAVE RIGHTS AND OBLIGATIONS?

Everyone will no doubt have a multitude of intelligent digital assistants (bots) for a wide variety of functions. They all form a bot economy since they communicate and transact with one another. In doing so, the most modern digital assistants make their own decisions and learn from their own experiences, which means that they then equal the status of independent, criminally liable people in our legal system. This leads to questions: do they have to file a tax return? And if they make a mistake can they be taken to court? And if so, can they be sentenced? To what? A fine? Punishment? Reprogramming? Or even a complete shutdown? And have they even got rights as well as  obligations?

WORKING IN A WORLD OF FULL EMPLOYMENT

Apart from technological trends, two key elements will shape the working world in Germany in the year 2030: full employment on the one hand – everyone well qualified is in work. There is only a very low rate of less educated unemployed people. On the other hand about 3 million jobs are vacant and cannot be filled because there are too few working people in Germany. This is because of the mass departure of the baby boomer generation into retirement, which will hit us in full swing in the coming years. As a result wages will increase, we will see immigration in the labor market, and people will work longer than the legal retirement age.

YOU NEVER STOP LEARNING!

On the other hand, all people permanently feel the need to retrain at the same time, in spite of full employment. At least every ten years, in cases of hardship even every five years, people will leave their jobs and be taught new technologies and business models during long retraining programs over six or twelve months. Today you can already see the pioneers of these “reboot camps“ in the “hack reactors“ of Silicon Valley, in which amateurs learn programming in 3 months, so that they can find a jobwith Google & Co. afterwards.

MAKE USE OF THE REALITY GAP!

Is this how you imagined the future would be? In most cases, probably not. It’s coming anyway! That’s why we futurologists have got our own term for the most important phenomenon of the future which hardly anyone has heard of before: the reality gap. This means that a gap exists: between our visual conception of the future as we see it up to now, and the technologies which really will be possible in the next ten years.

This reality gap forms the basis for our children being able to live a better life than their parents: they will live longer, live a more self-determined life, and be healthier. In doing so even solving some of the largest problems of humanity too. We have never been so close in technology terms. Let’s get started!